« Le moment de la visite inopinée de Poutine en Syrie était logique car il est en route vers la Turquie et il voulait célébrer Noël avec les troupes russes à l’étranger, mais c’était évidemment aussi une occasion de s’assurer que le régime syrien ne penche pas vers l’Iran après le meurtre de Soleimani. Poutine ne veut pas que le régime iranien se venge à partir de la Syrie », décrypte Joe Macaron”. Click here to read the full article (in French).
Killing the al-Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3 was an unprecedented measure by the United States in its four decades of confrontation with Iran. This assertive approach has enforced a much-needed deterrence of Iran and altered the narrative about a waning American influence. At the same time, it has also antagonized Tehran even if the Iranian regime appears to be standing down for now. The post-Soleimani Middle East offers both challenges and opportunities; however, the Trump Administration does not seem to have a strategy to either mitigate or exploit them. Click here to read my latest analysis.
“While direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran remains improbable in the foreseeable future, there are questions about what implications the current escalation might have for Lebanon and Syria, especially since Soleimani was the main architect of Iranian expansion in the Levant. However, Iran might face limitations for any retaliatory actions in Lebanon and Syria it may consider”. Click here to read my latest op-ed.
“Macaron thinks that the Syrian and Libyan cease-fires reflect Putin and Erdogan’s ambitious plans to share power in the region. “However, there are limitations to this plan as they do not have full control of events in Libya and their interests remain contradictory in Syria, hence both cease-fires are not guaranteed to last long,” he added”. Click here to read the full article.
“So far, the targets mostly falls within the ‘proportional’ retaliation to Soleimani killing, but we have to watch if the Iranian regime has more surprises, whether there are US casualties and whether Trump will stay restrained, Macaron told the Middle East Eye”. Click here to read the full article.
Click here to read the full article (in Russian).
“Will Iran continue on the path of proxy war with the U.S. or takes the confrontation to another level?” asked Macaron. “Both sides do not seek a traditional war, miscalculations can lead to direct confrontation given the growing mistrust and lack of direct communication between each side.” Click here to read the full article.
“No doubt there will be retaliation. The Iranian regime would not want to give the impression that it has a weak hand in this critical juncture,” Macaron told Middle East Eye”. Click here to read the full article.
In the past 15 years, the United States and Iran have battled over influence in Iraq and Lebanon. In October, this cold war reached a milestone with protests across the two countries rebuking decades of corruption, unemployment, inefficient public services, and government paralysis. The latter issue, in particular, has been increasingly driven in the last few years by the US-Iran showdown. Washington and Tehran now have different approaches toward these uprisings, but they remain unwilling to confront or to let go of their respective allies in Baghdad and Beirut. Click here to read my latest analysis.
Click here to read the full article in Arab News.