Op-Ed

Will Iran and the US clash in Lebanon and Syria?

“While direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran remains improbable in the foreseeable future, there are questions about what implications the current escalation might have for Lebanon and Syria, especially since Soleimani was the main architect of Iranian expansion in the Levant. However, Iran might face limitations for any retaliatory actions in Lebanon and Syria it may consider”. Click here to read my latest op-ed.

Op-Ed

What next for Lebanon after Hariri’s strategic exit?

Hariri’s resignation, far from resolving the crisis, has pushed the country further into political turmoil. In the short term, it is likely that Lebanon will face a political dead-end, until various forces weigh up their options. A quick resolution will largely depend on whether Hezbollah will remain in denial on the opposite side of a significant part of his own constituency or will show flexibility and ultimately recognise the new realities of the Lebanese uprising.  Click here to read my op-ed.

Op-Ed

Will the Trump administration abort Iran’s land bridge to the Mediterranean?

As the showdown between Washington and Tehran escalates elsewhere in the Gulf, Iran is giving high priority to secure, control and re-open al-
Bukamal border crossing, the only Syrian-Iraqi border crossing under its control, to solidify its influence in the Levant and mitigate the impact of US sanctions. The question remains, however, whether Iran will pull off this move and how the Trump administration might react? Click here to read my latest for al-Monitor.

Op-Ed

Are Russia and Turkey making deals or parting ways in Syria?

By now it is clear that “trying to have it all” might not be the best strategy for Turkey to pursue. In the foreseeable future, it might have to decide whether its priority is a deal east or west of the Euphrates River, and most importantly whether it should give up Tel Rifaat, Manbij or Idlib and at what price. If the US doubles down on its stance on the S-400, Turkey may also be forced to choose between US sanctions that undermine the Turkish economy or a Russian offensive in Idlib that weakens Turkish influence in Syria. Click here to read my latest op-ed.

Op-Ed

Why Trump recognised Israel’s claim on the Golan Heights

While the US decison to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights is primarily being explained away with geopolitics, it, in fact, has much more to do with US domestic politics. With this move, President Donald Trump aims to cement the gradual shift in partisan support of Israel from the Democrats to the Republicans and rally evangelical Christians around his presidency. Click here to read my latest op-ed.

Op-Ed

Politicization of the anti-corruption campaign in Lebanon

The latest buzzword in Lebanon is combating corruption. Nearly every political party, most notably Hezbollah, is preaching this mantra. The Lebanese public and international donors are complaining about political corruption, as the country grapples to survive a grave economic and fiscal crisis. Yet there are questions concerning the depth and seriousness of these efforts. Click here to read my latest on Lebanon.