Op-Ed

The U.S. Declares Strategic Bankruptcy in Syria

The Trump administration’s attempt to pin down a U.S. strategy in Syria showcases a lack of strategic vision. Capitol Hill had been demanding clarity. Instead, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s speech at the Hoover Institution on Jan. 17 offered no new path for a disoriented U.S. policy. The speech showcased five flawed justifications and conceptions for maintaining open-ended U.S. involvement in Syria. Click here to read my latest on the US strategy in Syria.

Op-Ed

Lebanon’s energy promise could be regional game changer

Three interconnected developments that occurred in December 2017 will have a lasting impact on Lebanon. The Lebanese government made two long overdue decisions: launching the energy exploration process and setting the parliamentary elections date for next May. The third development is a breakthrough that has regional implications: a United Nations-sponsored meeting was held between Lebanon and Israel to discuss for the first time the demarcation of their maritime border. Click here to read my latest piece on energy exploration in Lebanon.

 

Op-Ed

The Middle East in 2018: Five issues to watch

The past year was a watershed year for the Middle East and 2018 promises to continue on this path. Wars began to wind down across the region but challenges remain in managing conflict resolution. Next year will be defined by post-war transitions to peace talks, ballot boxes, and reconstruction. Two areas are the exception to this trend: Yemen is the only country that will start the new year without a roadmap to peace and territorial disputes along western Syria, from Idlib to Deraa, will continue next year. Turmoil across the Middle East makes it harder to narrow down the main political issues that will dominate 2018. However, five of them should be watched in 2018 because of their regional and international impact. Click here to read my latest piece.

Op-Ed

What’s next for Lebanon now that Hariri is back?

The prime minister’s triumphant return to Beirut followed by the decision to suspend his resignation breathed new life into the Hariri dynasty and the Lebanese oligarchy that embraced Saad. However, containing the long-term repercussions of Lebanon’s latest political turmoil will largely depend on the relation between that dynasty and its enabler. It is a relation shaped by four factors: the shakeup in Saudi politics, the Saudi-Iranian regional enmity, Lebanon’s internal dynamics and the struggle within Hariri’s Future Movement. Click here to read my latest Op-Ed on Lebanon.

Op-Ed

What’s next for Lebanon now that Hariri is back?

Moments after landing in Beirut on November 21, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri visited the grave of his late father Rafik. The symbolism of that move, after his enigmatic resignation on November 4, defines the Hariri dynasty that has now survived the 2005 assassination of its founder Rafik and a recent quasi-coup attempt against the heir Saad. Click here to read my latest op-ed.

Op-Ed

How Riyadh orchestrated its own downfall in Lebanon

While deterring Hezbollah is paramount, doing so requires a long-term approach of cultivating relations in Lebanese politics, whereas Saudi policy has been absent from Lebanon since 2011. Riyadh’s risky gambit had no realistic endgame or allies to execute it. It has failed miserably no matter the outcome. Once Saudi Arabia overcomes its own domestic turmoil, damage control is imperative to sustain influence in Lebanon. Click here to read my latest analysis on Lebanon.

Op-Ed

Is Saudi Arabia bluffing on Iran?

The Saudi leadership will most likely tone down the rhetoric once it contains the fallout of the domestic purge. While the White House will give Riyadh latitude for a while, pressure will grow in Washington to prevent further regional escalation. Iran has been expectedly reserved in its reaction and prefers not to risk regional gains for an impromptu confrontation. If the US does not contain the situation, unintended consequences might follow. Click here to read my latest analysis on what to make of the Saudi rhetoric toward Iran.

Op-Ed

After Hariri’s resignation, what’s next for Lebanon?

If there is any benefit from the resignation, it is that it should be a wake-up call for Hezbollah’s miscalculations concerning Hariri by overtly embracing him, portraying him as weak and hinting there is a daylight between him and Riyadh. Prolonging the Iranian-backed group’s controversial adventure in the Syrian war carries dangerous regional risks, and normalizing relations between Beirut and Damascus should not have been a pressing priority ahead of the legislative elections. There also should be recognition that the Saudi return to Lebanese politics, after a long absence, might be too little, too late, that having a Lebanon policy might not be enough to counter Iran if there is no Syria policy, and that the common interests that bind the Lebanese oligarchy are usually stronger than any external pressure. Here’s a link to my latest analysis on the day after Hariri’s resignation.

Op-Ed

Israel, Hezbollah playing Russian roulette in Syria

Israel’s unmasking of Munir Ali Naim Shati, also known as Hajj Hashem, was a warning shot in the absence of a channel for reducing tensions with Hezbollah. While it is hard to envision how both sides can resist the temptation of clashing in Syria in the long term, Russia will have to try to set new rules of engagement, or the next war will do so instead. Here’s a link to my latest analysis on the dynamic between Israel and Hezbollah in Syria.

Op-Ed

Macron, Trump and the Middle East

On paper, Emmanuel Macron is an antonym to Donald Trump. Yesterday’s French presidential elections will have ramifications on both transatlantic relations and the Middle East. The two novice leaders, who never held elected office, have a choice to either mend fences, confront or manage their deeply rooted ideological and political differences. Here’s a link to my latest Op-Ed on the election of Macron and its impact on US-French coordination in the Middle East.