American and Israeli airpower cannot go far without ground support. While Israel is primarily concerned about Iran, the United States is focused on setting red lines for Russia’s role in Syria. Israel used the anger toward the Syrian regime’s Duma attack to settle scores with Russia and Iran. The White House should caution against an Israeli attempt to entangle the United States in the Syrian war for the wrong reasons. Click here to read my latest on the looming US strike on Syria.

 

Jordan fears that the eight months of stability on its northern border with Syria, which started with the US-Russian agreement in July 2017, could come to an end. There are four worst-case scenarios for Amman moving forward as critical challenges continue to emerge in southwestern Syria. Furthermore, Jordan’s options to limit the damage of these scenarios might gradually narrow, especially now with President Donald Trump’s floating the idea of an American withdrawal from Syria. Click here to read my latest policy analysis.

President Donald Trump’s decision to fire Secretary of State Rex Tillerson represents the climax of nearly 15 months of the president’s disparagement of the agency charting US foreign policy. While mistrust and disrespect have animated his dealings with his former chief diplomat––whose experience in world affairs was limited to the private sector ––the ouster comes at a particularly sensitive time in US foreign policy. Click here to read my latest analysis on the firing of Tillerson.

Nearly 100 days after his mysterious “captivity” in the Saudi capital, Lebanese Prime Minister  Saad Hariri visited Riyadh again on February 28. The timing could not have been more critical as Lebanon is currently gearing up for a legislative election in May and Hariri is shaping his electoral alliances across the country’s 15 electoral districts. However, the lack of clarity about what was agreed on during this visit left the door wide open for speculation about its potential impact on Hariri’s relations with Riyadh and on Saudi influence in Lebanon. Click here to read my latest analysis on Lebanon.

The United States should remain engaged in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and President Abbas’s visit to Europe on January 22 may have provided the Trump Administration with a diplomatic lifeline. Click here to read my latest analysis on the US role in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

The US-Jordanian partnership has been strained and tested since the December 6 decision of President Donald Trump to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and start plans to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Vice President Mike Pence is due in Jordan on January 21 in an attempt to contain the fallout of the past four weeks. There is anxiety in Amman that Trump might neither understand nor tolerate Jordan’s diplomatic offensive against his controversial decision, which could ultimately harm US-Jordanian relations. In fact, Jordan’s King Abdullah II is now simultaneously facing difficult relations and conflicting interests with the leaders of the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Read here my latest analysis on US-Jordan relations.

 

Under pressure by foreign backers to compromise, the Syrian opposition is struggling to find its voice. It is increasingly coming to the realization that the status quo might ultimately lead to having President Bashar Assad stay in power, at least for a transitional period. After losing two crucial bargaining chips—significant territorial control in different parts of Syria, and the ability to offer and accept a ceasefire—the Syrian opposition is unable to force a compromise and has no game plan for what might come next as the Syrian war winds down. Click here for my latest analysis.

After 33 months of the Saudi-led war and three years of controlling Sanaa, the Houthis still have no game plan or exit strategy. Killing Saleh deprived them of a major ally and increased their isolation. Saudi Arabia is not expected to back out, but it is not clear what more can be done. A military solution will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Yemen without necessarily defeating Ansar Allah. If a political solution remains elusive, the major fallout of Saleh’s assassination might be accelerating the re-partition of Yemen. Click here for my latest analysis on Yemen.

US soft power, which was built by decades of persuasion and non-coercive tools, is no longer inspiring or persuasive. The political values and foreign policy the United States is projecting abroad are at odds with the international system Washington has shaped. That global perception about the US role might outlast the Trump presidency. Here’s a link to my latest policy analysis on Trump, Tillerson and US diplomacy.