Op-Ed
Op-Ed
How Riyadh orchestrated its own downfall in Lebanon
While deterring Hezbollah is paramount, doing so requires a long-term approach of cultivating relations in Lebanese politics, whereas Saudi policy has been absent from Lebanon since 2011. Riyadh’s risky gambit had no realistic endgame or allies to execute it. It has failed miserably no matter the outcome. Once Saudi Arabia overcomes its own domestic turmoil, damage control is imperative to sustain influence in Lebanon. Click here to read my latest analysis on Lebanon.
Op-Ed
Is Saudi Arabia bluffing on Iran?
The Saudi leadership will most likely tone down the rhetoric once it contains the fallout of the domestic purge. While the White House will give Riyadh latitude for a while, pressure will grow in Washington to prevent further regional escalation. Iran has been expectedly reserved in its reaction and prefers not to risk regional gains for an impromptu confrontation. If the US does not contain the situation, unintended consequences might follow. Click here to read my latest analysis on what to make of the Saudi rhetoric toward Iran.
Op-Ed
After Hariri’s resignation, what’s next for Lebanon?
If there is any benefit from the resignation, it is that it should be a wake-up call for Hezbollah’s miscalculations concerning Hariri by overtly embracing him, portraying him as weak and hinting there is a daylight between him and Riyadh. Prolonging the Iranian-backed group’s controversial adventure in the Syrian war carries dangerous regional risks, and normalizing relations between Beirut and Damascus should not have been a pressing priority ahead of the legislative elections. There also should be recognition that the Saudi return to Lebanese politics, after a long absence, might be too little, too late, that having a Lebanon policy might not be enough to counter Iran if there is no Syria policy, and that the common interests that bind the Lebanese oligarchy are usually stronger than any external pressure. Here’s a link to my latest analysis on the day after Hariri’s resignation.