While the Iraqi premier is gradually consolidating power, he remains a prisoner of the ruling coalition that brought him to office, instead of independently making bold changes that alter Iraq’s political dynamics. If Abadi does not face his demons, sooner or later the US might lose its residual power in Iraq. My latest commentary after the Karrada attacks.
Lebanon is the only country in the Middle East where US policy is actively seeking to deter Iran’s regional influence. Washington is directly targeting Hezbollah’s financial assets in the country by enforcing a US law through the Lebanese banking system. This development has led to a confrontation between the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite group and the US-supported Central Bank, culminating on June 12 in an explosion in Beirut targeting BLOM Bank, Lebanon’s second largest financial institution. Since then, new rules of engagement have emerged with a compromise limiting the impact of US sanctions against Hezbollah. Read the full analysis.
If we are to apply the five stages of loss and grief on Syria’s Bashar Assad, he seems reluctantly halfway in “bargaining”, after five years of denial and anger. Here are my five takeaways from his June 7 speech before “Parliament”:
1- Showing disdain for Syrian rivals
Assad nicknamed the Syrian opposition as “the traitors who are outside”, “other factions”, and “mop of their masters”. A major obstacle to the Geneva negotiations has been indeed the Assad regime looking down at the Syrian opposition with a preference to talk with the countries they back them. Assad praised the sacrifices of the Syrian people living under his territorial control, yet had no reference to all the Syrians killed by his atrocities. He also did not mention the Syrian refugees, with more than 4.5 million stranded across the world. Assad still sees the Syrian war as a “regional and international conflict” and demonizing fellow Syrians serve that purpose. Continue reading “Moving from Denial to Bargaining: Five Takeaways from Assad speech”