My take on whether the Syrian war is over or not, part of a regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security by Carnegie Middle East Center. Click here for the full link.

“The war in Syria is multifaceted and from it various parallel conflicts have emerged over the years. The civil war came to an end with the U.S.-Russian ceasefire agreement for southern Syria last July. The war against the Islamic State was mostly concluded this month with the recapture of all border crossings between Syria and Iraq. Continued tensions along the borders of Israeli-controlled territory and Turkey, if not properly addressed, might lead to asymmetric warfare between Israel and Hezbollah or between Turkish and Kurdish forces.

Rather than Syrian rivals voluntarily negotiating a deal, it was external factors that imposed a cessation of hostilities. Turkey’s realignment toward Russia and Iran, which led to a fragile nationwide ceasefire in Syria last December, and the U.S. decision last July to terminate arming the Syrian rebels, have closed the supply lines to the northern and southern front of the armed opposition. Washington also endorsed Moscow’s concept of deconfliction zones across Syria. While influential foreign actors are making long-term plans for postwar Syria, putting in place a stable and prosperous order is not on the horizon. The armed conflict is gradually shifting to a political battle that will determine what kind of Syria will emerge from the conflict and who will run the country’s security, politics, and economics”.